For more than 20 years, numerical modeling has been an integral part of the Chesapeake Bay Program, America’s premier watershed restoration partnership. Models have helped the CBP to understand and interpret observed patterns of flow, water quality, population dynamics, and ecosystem interactions in the Bay and its watershed. Models have also been used to help define restoration goals, and to predict the outcomes of proposed regulatory and restoration activities. Over this period, the scope and complexity of CBP modeling have grown tremendously, and numerical modeling has become a central tool for evaluating restoration options.

The CBP modeling program now appears to be at a crossroads. Recent reviews of CBP component models, while generally positive, have identified scope for enhancement and improvement. Public perceptions of the role and reliability of CBP model predictions have been damaged by recent news stories. A recent GAO review recommended that the CBP develop a more integrated assessment approach and improve its communication of the status and trends of the restoration effort. Meanwhile, rapid growth of the open-source community modeling concept has challenged the more focused and traditional approach of CBP modeling while offering exciting new opportunities. The likelihood that TMDLs will be required in parts of the Bay watershed after 2010 presents new management and modeling challenges. Innovative changes in monitoring approaches and capabilities also offer significant new challenges and opportunities for modelers.

For these reasons, the Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) of the CBP, with the support of the CBP Modeling Subcommittee and the Chesapeake Community Modeling Program (CCMP), is sponsoring this workshop to discuss future directions for modeling in the CBP. The broad objectives of the workshop include:

1. Exploring the challenges and opportunities likely to face CBP modeling efforts in the next 5-10 years, and
2. Formulating recommendations to help the CBP plan for the future and maximize the utility and openness of its modeling efforts.

Presentations and open discussion will address many topics relevant to these broad objectives, including: (1) utilization of new numerical techniques, (2) improved co-operation among management and research modelers through open-source community modeling approaches, (3) coupling with larger scale atmospheric and oceanic models, and (4) better integration with monitoring efforts. Additional topics will be generated by participants at the workshop.

Return to the STAC Workshop Webpage

Modeling in the Chesapeake Bay Program: 2010 and Beyond Workshop Presentations

Lewis Linker, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency An Overview of Modeling in the CBP: Past, Present, and Future     Mike Haire, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency The Looming Challenge of TMDLs     Mike Kemp, UMD Center for Environmental Science Science Modeling, Engineering Modeling, and Management Needs    Tom Gross, Chesapeake Research Consortium Building a Chesapeake Research Community through Open Source Modeling    Bill Dennison, UMD Center for Environmental Science Ecological Forecasting and Integrative Ecosystem Assessment    Robin Dennis, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency New Capabilities and Airshed Modeling    Chris Duffy, Pennsylvania State University Challenges for Integrated Modeling and Monitoring in the Watershed    Bob Wood, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration From 2010 and Beyond: Challenges Integrating Monitoring and Modeling in the Estuary    Harry Wang, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Advances in Modeling the Chesapeake Estuary    John Wilkin, Rutgers Modeling the Continental Shelf of the Mid-Atlantic Bight